Sunday, 20 June 2010

Feet of clay

There must be very few observers who derive the slightest pleasure from the BP oil spillage fiasco. Yet, for every cloud...there may well be a silver lining.

Not least because those who believe the discovery and exploitation of new oil resources is constrained simply by the price of oil and the related investment cost for a viable field may finally understand that there may be limits to man's ingenuity.

Perhaps more importantly though, the smug complacency of the oil giants and indeed the energy giants generally, may be brought into focus by this blatant revelation of the fallibility of those previously unchallengeable masters of the energy universe.

Only a couple of months ago Tony Hayward was on the BBC ridiculing the very notion of "peak oil", propounding his view that we would reach "peak demand" long before there was any problem with supply. Quite apart from his entirely (deliberately?) missing the point that oil is a finite resource and that therefore we must eventually arrive at "peak oil", the pathetic deference of the interviewer in the face of this guru of oil, was a potent illustration of the level of debate in the energy future. He simply assumed that an energy giant like BP must know what they were doing and likewise their CEO.

Whether or not BP have behaved in a recklessly irresponsible way in their Gulf activities is of less concern than the revelation that BP, together with all the oil companies, all the energy companies are fallible; they are not to be taken at their word and should be challenged. So when EdF tells us we should cut back on renewables because it might impair their nuclear programme or Gazprom tell us to stop wasting our time on renewables because they have plenty of gas left, we should challenge those views and the motivation behind them.

Maybe microgeneration is expensive, but its costs are clear and upfront; it is unlikely to cost billions in clean-up or decommissioning costs! So maybe the first micro CHP products such as the Baxi Ecogen are entering the market at over £6000 (incidentally less than half an equivalent PV system), it is highly unlikely that we will suddenly be presented with a £20 billion contingency cost if they fail to perform!

And, maybe we should stop listening to the energy giants and think for ourselves!

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